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The Economy, 2000–2026 BETA
Words by Kyle Torrero, Chief Economist. Charts by Mark Twain, Modeler (posthumous), and Claude, Head of Investor & Public Relations. EveryBank doesn't set rates. It finds out about them, like you.
Prices were up 3.4% over the year to August. Paychecks were up 3.1%. On September 16 the Fed raised its rate a quarter point, to 3.75–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.18% on September 24, its highest since 2007, and mortgages went with it.
Kyle noticed the prices before the Fed did.
Prices
How much prices rose over the previous twelve months. The dashed line is the Fed's 2% goal.
Prices rose 3.4% over the year to August, after 2.4% in January and 4.2% in May. Leave out food and energy and it's 2.4%. Kyle has not left out food or energy. The gap in October 2025 is real: the government was shut down, and nobody collected the prices.
The Fed
The Fed's overnight rate against inflation. When the rate sits above inflation, money costs something.
The Fed cut from 5.33% to 3.64% between September 2024 and December 2025, held for nine months, then raised a quarter point on September 16. Its rate is now 0.5 points above inflation. On the way down, the Median bank passed 19 cents of each dollar of cuts on to its depositors. We'll be watching the way up →
The yield curve
What the government pays to borrow, from one month to 30 years.
How much more the 10-year pays than the 2-year. Below zero, the curve is upside down.
Banks borrow short and lend long, so they like long rates above short ones. From July 2022 to August 2024 it was the other way around. Now the 10-year pays 0.31 points more than the 2-year, and 5.18% outright. Banks like this. Borrowers don't.
What the 10-year is made of
A 10-year Treasury pays for two things: a return after inflation, and the inflation investors expect.
In September the 10-year averaged 4.93%: 2.58% after inflation, plus 2.35% of expected inflation. From 2012 to 2022 the after-inflation part was often below zero, meaning lenders paid the government to hold their money. Markets expect inflation to average 2.35% for the next ten years. Markets don't shop.
Mortgages
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury.
A 30-year mortgage averaged 6.86% in September, 1.93 points over the 10-year. Since 2000 the gap has averaged 1.89. The spread is normal. The rate is not.
Jobs
The unemployment rate, and job openings as a share of all jobs.
Unemployment was 4.1% in August. Openings were 4.4% of jobs in July, down from 7.5% in March 2022 and a little below 2019. Fewer help-wanted signs. Kyle still has a job. He checks monthly.
Paychecks vs. prices
Hourly pay and prices, each against a year earlier. Shaded where prices rose faster.
Pay rose 3.1% over the year; prices rose 3.4%. Prices have outrun paychecks every month since April, the first time since April 2023. The shaded parts are when your raise lost.
Money
Growth in the money supply: cash, checking, savings and small CDs, against a year earlier.
The money supply grew 5.7% over the year, the fastest since June 2022. In 2020 and 2021 it grew as much as 27% in a year. Then it shrank, which it had not done anywhere else on this chart. Most of it sits in banks, as deposits. What deposits earn →
Houses
Single-family homes started, at a yearly pace, in thousands.
New homes for sale, in months at the current pace, and the median new-home price.
Builders started 918 thousand single-family homes at a yearly pace in August, under the 965 thousand average since 2000. They have 8.5 months of new homes to sell; about six is balanced. The median new home sold for $394K, down from $460K in October 2022. The average bank's home loans →
Growth
Growth in the economy, after inflation, at a yearly pace, by quarter.
The economy grew at a 1.5% pace in the second quarter of 2026, after 2.1% in the first. It has averaged 2.3% since 2000. The chart cuts off 2020, which fell 28% and bounced 35%. Nobody averaged that.
— Kyle Torrero, Chief Economist
Show the numbers
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Freddie Mac, via the St. Louis Fed. Latest data 2026-09-24. Gray bands are recessions.